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How long can the Rolex madness continue?

The madness of many popular models, including Rolexes, has been evident to all over the past month or so, and as we said in “$200,000+ white steel Di, ~$800,000 Audemars Piguet Perpetual Calendar, do you still love it? said in “Many offers that were once thought to be impossible are now not only a reality, but a degree of price leakage.”

On March 10th, Morgan Stanley, in conjunction with LuxConsult, released the Swiss Watch Research Report, in which the data “Rolex topped the global sales chart for the fourth consecutive year, occupying nearly 25% of the global market share in 2020” pushed Rolex even further into the limelight, vaguely creating a trend of national scalping: the The watchmaker TE played with the idea of financial management 191,000 to get a second-hand white steel Di, arrived an hour, the watch has not warmed up, in the watchmaker group in the hands of a photo, directly by people 195,000 to take away – 4,000 yuan per hour – but thinking 191,000 again When looking for one, it was already impossible to find.

“The middle of the sun is moving, the full moon is losing, things flourish and decline, the constants of the sky.” A lot of people have recently turned this old ancestor’s words out of the book, as an aside, “Rolex popular models high premium for so long,luxury replica watches has long been full of bubbles, now the madness is the last madness, will soon collapse, the public price into the hands of the day”.

So, is it likely that the market for popular Rolex models will come back down in the next two or three months?

Firstly, there are two simple reasons for the crazy rise in Rolex hot models over the past month or so: one, the reduction in the number of domestic hot models in stock; and two, specifically the Gundy, the rumours of discontinuation do have some impact.

At the quantity level, the new models are about to be released and the number of popular models given to dealers by the brand has plummeted, with the new product level almost out of supply; the impact of the epidemic is also continuing, with rumours circulating that many watch brands are doing two to five on their production lines, further reducing production and also transferring goods that should be sold in Europe and the US to the domestic market, which is in great shape, so much so that many foreign dealers are complaining about the late arrival of goods and the low number of arrivals. But it is interesting to note that the number of popular models in stock in the domestic market has not increased as expected, but has decreased, and even the logbook models that were once available in counters and could negotiate a small discount are now considered a small scarcity, and the market has increased. A large part of the reason behind this is that some people are sweeping up goods to sell abroad.

Traditionally, the so-called watch pouring goods should be poured from Europe and the United States to sell at home, only the past year the situation is special, production cuts + transfer, so that the new market in Europe and the United States gradually shortage of goods, but demand remains, at this time, demand > supply led to the local popular models of the market rose to higher than the domestic time, watch dealers see the profitability, naturally began to sweep the goods in the country to sell to the market higher Surrounding countries, Europe and the United States: In mid-February, someone in Hong Kong bought a large number of black steel Di at a price of 169,000-177,000 and white steel Di at 193,000, and in almost one day, a total of more than 30 black and white steel Di were collected. With this guaranteed price, many watch dealers in China began to raise the retail price to retail customers, and soon, around 20 February, the retail price of the white steel di was directly up to 200,000 yuan. At that time, the market in Japan was even higher, translating to almost 220,000 ……

At the same time, a lot of hot money poured into the watchmakers. In the eyes of wealthy people who were holding a lot of money but had no better investment projects due to the epidemic and other reasons, the watch industry was a good safe haven: the rise of software such as Jitterbug and Racer allowed sales networks to be geared to the whole country more easily, and popular models were of high value and quick turnaround.

Some people have done the maths: a 20 million dollar investment with an annual return of 15-20%, depending on the city and size. Not an exaggeration, but it’s better than saving in a bank or buying shares.

A certain table friend just today posted the blood and tears: “I wanted to make an effort to earn a log money,orologi replica di lusso who knew that has fallen two between the gold log money”.

Discontinued level, last year after the release of the 32 Green Sailor, the market opened high and low, 31 Green Sailor brand new market instead all the way up. This gave many people a psychological implication: Rolex iteration of the new release, the old model of the market will rush a wave.

This year, the news of “white steel Di discontinued, 41mm new DiTongna replacement” has been circulating for more than a month, during which time too many people who had been on the fence entered, either thinking of getting in before the discontinuation to avoid repeating the mistake of Patek Philippe 5711A; or planning to make a small profit.

Then came the continuity of these two reasons in the future. Discontinued or not, it is a fact and will have no further impact; but the number of popular models on the market will only become smaller. There are two reasons for this: firstly, there is no reason for brands to increase production of popular models in large numbers, and secondly, the case of Lao Wu is starting to fester and customs will start to investigate thoroughly, as a prelude to the several cases of smuggling of watches caught in lorries in Gongbei, Shenzhen, in November 2020.

In “The Fall of a Generation of “Legendary” Watermen”, we covered Lao Wu’s case in detail, but one thing was left out at the time, namely that Customs did not make the first arrest when Lao Wu’s underlings crossed the border, but waited until he had gone to the shipping location and filled in all the recipient information before closing the net. In other words, during that arrest, Customs had actually got hold of the recipient addresses, names and telephone numbers of some of the domestic watch dealers. The 700 million yuan in 2 years! The watch dealer who threatened to do only million-dollar business was arrested” was an article in which Xie was followed, and some domestic watch-related organisations were also implicated.

And Xie is just the beginning. It’s still a rumour in the jungle: the General Administration of Customs has named some watch dealers in Beijing and Shenzhen to determine to number. If the naming continues, then the number of watches on the secondary market is bound to decrease significantly, with domestic demand remaining unchanged, when it is all too normal for the market to rise and for shops to tighten discounts to raise the terms of popular models on sale.

There are problems here: the list of Beijing watchmakers is not difficult to understand, a continuation of Xie’s case. What about Shenzhen’s? Is it the result of mapping after the express list of Lao Wu’s batch of goods? Or is it some other source?

Finally, if I were to say that the Rolex popular models in the next two or three months market is up or down, my answer would definitely be up, because at the moment there is no reason to see a drop ……

As for your question, “A 100,000 Gundy is now over 200,000 and has doubled in value, is it still worth buying”, I don’t know, it depends on your own financial resources and watch spending habits. There’s a good comparison: with two or three million in my hand I’m sure I’ll buy a house, but someone goes straight into an RM base model at a premium.

Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Isn’t it just a personal choice?

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